NetbookTech

Netbooks will eventually disappear.

That’s the belief of AMD’s CEO, Dirk Meyer. At the company’s earnings conference call, Meyer stated “The distinction between what is a netbook and what is a notebook is going to go away.” Basically, future ultra-compact notebooks capable of delivering full PC experiences will be priced in such a way that netbooks will no longer be a factor.

AMD’s reasoning? The upcoming Athlon Neo platform of course (and somewhat realized by the upcoming HP Pavilion dv2 notebook).

Yet this really depends on what one defines a netbook to be. Is a netbook a 10 inch system with an Atom processor inside? Is it a 12 inch system with a ULV Core 2 Duo processor inside? To us at NetbookTech, a netbook is an inexpensive (typically less than $500 dollars), lightweight (under 3 pounds), ultra-portable (ranging in sizes from 7 inch displays to 12 inch displays), long-lasting (3-5 hours) mobile computer. It really says nothing about the processor or graphics component within the system. We believe that netbooks can provide that full PC experience – depending on what that means to you of course.

AMD would of course like you to associate netbooks with low performing systems not capable of delivering the full PC experience (in order to sell you on their upcoming Neo platform), but we’d like to think that future processor and system innovations will float down to the netbook category – resulting in inexpensive, lightweight, ultra-portable solutions that can do it all.

Thus it’s our belief that netbooks as a class or category is here to stay. Will it always use an Intel Atom processor with crappy Intel graphics? Of course not.. but the concept of a cheap lightweight portable system delivering everything you need for daily use has strung a note among many users out there and companies are heeding this note.

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Hoping AMD will enter the netbook processor market? Well you might have to wait a bit longer.

The company held their 2008 Financial Analyst Day today where they unveiled their upcoming 2009 and 2010 processor roadmap. On the roadmap, the company unveiled several new platforms and processors targeting the ultra-portable notebook market. This market is basically one represented by ultra-portable, ultra-light, slim, small form factor notebooks such as the MacBook Air and Voodoo Envy 133 notebook. According to AMD spokesman John Taylor (via News.com):

“The target is the slim form factor with a larger screen. Not a 10- or 11- or 12-inch screen”

The two platforms coming out in 2009 are the “Congo” and “Yukon” platform which, according to AMD, will provide a “full PC experience” – something that, according to AMD, is not possible with a netbook system.

The Congo platform consists of:

• “Conesus” CPU
• 2 CPU cores
• RS780 + SB710 chipsets
• ATI Radeon HD
• ATI Avivo HD
• BGA packaging for slim designs
• 802.11n and 3G support

The Yukon platform consists of:

• “Huron” CPU
• 1 CPU core
• RS690E + SB600 chipsets
• ATI Radeon
• ATI Avivo
• BGA packaging for slim designs
• 802.11n and 3G support

AMD is shooting to offer sub-25 watt processors platforms (CPU + chipset). For comparison purposes, the current Turion processors operate at over 30 watts, the mobile Core 2 Duos operate somewhere between 10 and 17 watts, and the Intel Atom is sub 8 watts. For comparison purposes, the Atom + accompanying chipset is roughly 11.5 watts (the N270 is rated at around 2.5 watts). Thanks to Paul for the clarification.

Now down the road in 2010, AMD will be introducing the “Nile” platform which consists of a dual core Geneva CPU in a BGA packaging.

So what does this ultimately mean for the netbook market? For now, it appears AMD is still on the outside looking in. Their focus remains on more capable system designs which makes sense from a financial standpoint. They stand to gain the most revenue/gross margins from that category as opposed to the lower margin netbook market. The company does acknowledge that there’s “tremendous interest and excitement about the mininotebook category”. However, AMD also points out that the main growth drivers for this market are the “High Growth Markets” and the “Mature Markets” – both of which are arguably covered by AMD platforms.

For the High Growth Markets, AMD claims that people want to buy the best system they can with the money that they have. The claim here is – netbooks are not that best value – but rather a system based on the AMD Kite Refresh Platform is ideal. If you’re not familiar with the Kite Refresh, it consists of a Turion 64 X2 dual core or Mobile Sempron single core processor, 802.11n Wi-Fi, DDR2-800 memory etc.

For mature markets, individuals are purchasing netbooks as secondary or their nth device for “basic web access”. AMD again has their market covered with their upcoming “Yukon” platform which aims to deliver a full PC experience.

Thus based on the provided slides, it certainly appears AMD is focused on delivering the best platform experience for ultra-portable notebooks and for now ceding the netbook market to Intel. This isn’t to say that we won’t see netbook like systems based on AMD processors. Hardware vendors could certainly get creative enough with their offerings and bring out 13 or sub 13 inch systems featuring the Congo or Yukon platform. The ultimate determining pieces to that would be a combination of price and power efficiency. The thermal envelop on the respective processors for these platforms are still higher than respective ULV Core 2 Duos and Intel Atom processors.

Finally, please don’t be fooled by other articles in the press like PC World’s “AMD Jumps Into the Netbook Fray” article or PC Mag’s “AMD Answers Intel’s Atom with Conesus”. First, Conesus addresses the ultra-portable market that Intel Core 2 Duo ULV processors address. You’ll never see Atom processors for the ultraportable market – they’re simply not powerful enough. As for the PC World article, they have it all wrong. Again – just read the roadmap slides and you’ll see the emphasis is on larger scale systems. Again – this makes sense because quite frankly it makes the most financial sense for AMD.

In the meantime, it’s still pretty much a wait and see approach with AMD. It looks like the Intel Atom processor will be the shape of netbooks to come for the near future.

[Check out AMD’s client processor slides]

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By this time tomorrow, we may very well know more about what AMD’s plans are for the netbook market. An AMD spokesperson mentioned on Wednesday that “tomorrow we will discuss our plans to move into the ultraportable market and deliver new platforms aimed at the key areas driving the bulk of the mobile market expansion”. Notice that they say “ultraportable market”. It’s not entirely clear that this translates to the netbook market – but then again, AMD could be avoiding to use the “netbook” term simply because it’s a term that Intel popularized again (though they are not the originators of the term “netbook”).

Whatever the case might be, it’ll be interesting to see what AMD has in store for the ultra-portable market. As News.com points out, the company has been noticeably absent from the ultra-low voltage processor market – pretty much acquiescing this particular market to Intel’s ULV processors. Thus tomorrow could very well be the coming out party for a new AMD ULV processor OR.. it could be the unveiling of a new modified Geode processor.. OR it could be something totally new. Whatever the case might, it should be an interesting day for AMD fans.

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AMD is expected to release details of their new netbook strategy this week along with details of their new processor. According to APC Mag, the company will also address two key issues with today’s netbooks  – video and battery performance.  Today’s video/graphics performance is really subpar and you can thank Intel’s crappy integrated graphics for that one. As far as battery life is concerned, most users need to purchase a six cell battery in order to enjoy 5+ hours of power. Clearly we need better solutions.

Thus, it’s probably a safe bet that AMD will be unveiling a processor/graphics solution for netbook systems – leveraging the graphics expertise within the ATI division against their expertise in low power mobile processors.

All of this can only be good news for you the consumer. Having AMD in the netbook picture will result in lower processor prices which will translate to lower netbook costs. AND we all know lower prices are a very good thing for consumers.

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With the explosive growth of netbooks and the near dominance of Intel Atom processors in this particular market, one can’t help but wonder where is AMD in all of this? Well according to NetworkWorld, AMD is planning to lay out their product strategy for netbooks at an analyst meeting next month. Dirk Meyer, AMD’s president and CEO, had this to say on Thursday during the company’s conference call with financial analysts:

“We do have strategies together with our OEMs for pushing our solutions both down into smaller form factors and lower notebook price points”

AMD’s plans for the netbook segment apparently required a “complicated answer” which was not suitable for a phone conversation. Um.., yeah that sounded more like them saying “Don’t call us, we’ll call you.”

In any event, I am particularly excited about the notion of AMD entering the netbook market with their own processor/chipset offering. While I’m perfectly content with the Intel Atom processor, I utterly hate Intel integrated graphics (mind you, this is coming from a person who used to work in the Intel Graphics Components Division too!).

It should be interesting to see what AMD will do in this space. They certainly have all the necessary resources to make a competitive if not more effective product offering than the Intel Atom/Intel chipset combination.

On the processor side of the equation, AMD has the Geode processor which has a lower thermal envelope than the Intel Atom processor. However the company could also retool an older AMD processor and turn it into a super efficient processor – say make the old K8 into a small 45 nm product with a low thermal output. That would be utterly sweet.. but pure conjecture at this point. However, where the fun really kicks in would be on the graphics front with AMD’s line of ATI products. We all know ATI integrated graphics would be a far better solution than Intel graphics.. but what if the company decided to throw graphics, Northbridge and Southbridge components into a single die? Consider the heat and size advantages that this solution would provide? OK.. so I might be dreaming but it’s not inconceivable of AMD to pursue this route.

What does this mean to all of you netbook users out there? Better, faster, more efficient netbooks down the road. Oh yeah…

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